Why the four minutes after a loss are so expensive
Revenge trading rarely announces itself. You take a clean setup, it stops you out for −1R, and ninety seconds later you're back in the same coin at 1.5× the size — no setup, just the urge to get it back now. Each trade looks defensible in isolation. It's only in aggregate that a −1R afternoon becomes a −8R one. The damage hides in two numbers: your win rate after a loss, and your size after a loss. This calculator turns the first one into money.
How the estimate is built
An ordinary trade's expected value is your win rate times what you win, minus your loss rate times what you lose. A tilt trade is the same trade with a worse win rate, so it costs you the gap between the two — every time you take one. Multiply that gap by how many tilt trades you take in a month and you have the monthly bleed. The tool assumes a winning trade makes about what a losing trade loses, which understates the real damage (tilt trades are usually oversized too) — an estimate that errs low is the honest kind.
It is an estimate from numbers you typed, not a measurement. The exact figure depends on the real size and outcome of every tilt trade against your true baseline — Postmortem computes it from your synced fills and stamps a FLAGGED verdict on the trades that caused it.
What to do about it
The bleed has two mechanical fixes. A cooldown after every loss removes the speeda revenge trade needs; a pre-sized position removes the size. Set both while you're calm and the tilted version of you has nothing to inflate. The full playbook is in how to stop revenge trading.
FAQ
How does the revenge trading calculator work?
It compares the expected value of your ordinary trades against your after-a-loss trades. Because a tilt trade wins less often, each one costs you the gap between the two. Multiply that by how many tilt trades you take a month and you get the monthly bleed. It assumes a winning trade makes about what a losing trade loses (1:1), which keeps the estimate conservative.
What counts as a revenge trade?
A trade opened in the minutes after a loss with no fresh setup — usually bigger than your normal size, sometimes with the stop moved or removed. The tell is structural, not emotional: a new entry shortly after a red trade, above your baseline size.
Is the number accurate?
It is an honest estimate built from your own inputs, not a measurement. The real figure depends on the exact size and outcome of every tilt trade against your true baseline — which is what Postmortem computes automatically once your fills are synced. Treat the calculator as the reason to go look at the real one.
How do I stop revenge trading?
A cooldown after every loss removes the speed, and pre-sized positions remove the size — the two things a revenge trade depends on. A journal that flags after-a-loss trades makes the pattern visible so you can see whether the guardrails are holding.